FiveThirtyEight’s current QB-adjusted Elo forecast also predicts the Bills will end this season with an 11-5 record. Edit 2: According to the RAPTORS player rating. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. There’s actually quite a lot of disagreement between the algorithms here. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. Each row includes a elo_prob1 field, which is the probability that team1will win the game according to the Elo model. 3. GitHub data at data/nba-raptor. We started with Elo ratings before introducing our CARMELO player projection system, which we then incorporated into our “CARM-Elo” season prediction model. Partisanship is determined by who sponsors the poll, rather than who conducts it. 1.8k. The Details. But for now, we’re excited to get your feedback, start the season, and put our metric to the test. Score: Bucks 115, Raptors 105. Second, and relatedly, we wanted a statistic that better reflects how modern NBA teams actually evaluate players. In order to make money in sports betting, you need a truly prognostic betting signal, conditional on the casino’s prediction. They predict the opposite outcome in 3/6 games. Standard deviations were 12.7 for RAPTOR and 12.8 for ELO, so similar precision. In both tests FiveThirtyEight’s Elo model does a lot better than I expected. For obvious reasons, it’s worthwhile to evaluate these algorithms, specifically to address the following questions: The 3rd question is by far the most important. RAPTOR (26) Vegas is in the business of predicting point spreads very accurately (they lose money if they don’t) and Vegas simply draws on more information to make these predictions than an Elo system. The Best NFL Teams Of All Time, According To Elo By Neil Paine. Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. Standings Games Quarterbacks. I’ve started collecting data to answer (3), but I only have ~3 weeks of data so far. FiveThirtyEight has been predicting NBA games for a few years now, based on a variant of Elo ratings, which in turn have roots in ranking chess players. CARM-Elo (2). But it appreciates modern centers such as Nikola Jokić and Joel Embiid, as well as defensive stalwarts like Rudy Gobert. We’ll have more ways for readers to see and use RAPTOR soon. Ideally, the distribution of residuals should be centered at 0 (accurate) and as narrow as possible (precise). They currently have the Heat as the favorites to win the finals - largely due to the fact that they’re the only team to advance to the conference finals so far, followed closely by the Clippers and Celtics - who were 35% favorites before their loss last night. FiveThirtyEight's 2020 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. Let’s look at the correlations among our four candidate predictors and response variable: On the last point, it seems that FiveThirtyEight uses a very simple method to map point spreads to win probabilities: Based on this, I’m comfortable completely dropping the win probability variables from subsequent analyses. I could achieve that myself, say by picking the team with the better record to win by 5 points in every game, or even just picking the home team to win by 1 point. Podcast: Nate Silver On The Power Of Elo. How do you rate an NBA team across decades of play? As you can see, RAPTOR generally loves perimeter players and wings, such as Curry, Harden, Leonard and Chris Paul, although some frontcourt players like Jokic, Anthony Davis and Draymond Green are also rated highly by the system. 2. The Elo … Press J to jump to the feed. To this end we created the fivethirtyeight R package of data and code behind the stories and interactives at the data journalism website FiveThirtyEight.com. More NBA:2019-20 RAPTOR player ratings Our preseason player … Part of this is probably from how mercurial this NFL season has been and thus hard for Vegas to predict. FiveThirtyEight publishes predictions for every NBA game. RAPTOR consists of two major components that are blended together to rate players: a “box” (as in “box score”) component, which uses individual statistics (including statistics derived from player tracking and play-by-play data), and an “on-off” component, which evaluates a team’s performance when the player and various combinations of his teammates are on or off the floor. 20 days ago. FiveThirtyEight's soccer predictions calculate each team's chances of winning each match and the league title across 39 leagues. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! In testing RAPTOR on out-of-sample data, we found that while on-court/off-court stats provide useful information, they’re nonetheless quite noisy as compared with individual measures of player value that are used in the “box” part of RAPTOR. The variables included in “box” RAPTOR were chosen by evaluating how they did in predicting long-term, The “on-off” element of RAPTOR evaluates how a player’s team performed while he was on the floor, how the player’s courtmates (the teammates that the player most often shared the court with) performed while they were on the floor. It can have a love-hate relationship with centers, who are sometimes overvalued in other statistical systems. Contribute to fivethirtyeight/nfl-elo-game development by creating an account on GitHub. One method is Elo, a simple measure of strength based on game-by-game results. We calculated Elo ratings for every NBA (and ABA) franchise after every game in history over 60,000 ratings in total. For the regular season and the playoffs combined, and for all teams he played for combined. With 679 data points, I think it’s perfectly reasonable to include both in the same linear regression model. In other words, RAPTOR does not account for coaching, systems or synergies between teammates. Data and code for FiveThirtyEight's NFL game. FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Miami Heat a … The Federal Government Wasn’t Tracking COVID-19 Cases In Schools, So Emily Oster Decided To Do It Herself, Trump Hasn’t Pardoned Many People -- But So Far They Have Been Mostly His Friends, First, we wanted to create a publicly available statistic that takes advantage of modern NBA data, specifically. 1.8k. RAPTOR's top five players, four ways. We saw earlier that the correlation between RAPTOR and ELO spread was 0.79. Thus, the current version of the Raptors is associated with an Elo rating that would peg them not as a 58-win team, but somewhere in the mid-60s instead. I describe RAPTOR in more detail in the methodology post. But that changes this year. Evaluates the probabilities stored in my_prob1 against the ones in elo_prob1, and shows how those forecasts would have done in our game for every season since 1920. Here’s what it looks like: There are four candidate betting signals: We don’t have to pick just one. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The slope is about right for RAPTOR (1.005) and a little too steep for ELO (1.064). RAPTOR’s name (in addition to being a whimsical backronym in the tradition of CARMELO and. UPDATED Dec. 13, 2020, at 10:13 AM. What NFL Quarterback Would You Want for the Next 5 Years? Classically, Elo is a rating system that only uses win and losses to measure performance. RAPTOR thinks ball-dominant players such as James Harden and Steph Curry are phenomenally good. A dataframe with 20492 rows representing every player broken out by season and era and 22 variables: This article will go over some of the highlights of how RAPTOR works. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. Fills in a my_prob1 field for every game using code in forecast.py. On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight publishes their predictions for the entire 2019–2020 season to date, which gives me a little over 3 months of data for addressing questions (1) and (2). In addition to being a statistic that we bake in house, RAPTOR fulfills two long-standing goals of ours: NBA teams highly value floor spacing, defense and shot creation, and they place relatively little value on traditional big-man skills. The file wnba-player-stats.csv contains season-level advanced stats for WNBA players by team for the 1997-2019 seasons, from Basketball-Reference.com.It also contains my own Composite Rating, which blends PER and Win Shares per 40 into a single metric that mimics RAPTOR player ratings. Per the analytics folks, the Bills still have a 75 percent chance of winning the division currently. Has anyone else checked out the playoff forecast over at FiveThirtyEight? at 5:10 PM, Get the data on GitHub We learned a few things about FiveThirtyEight’s NBA algorithms here: they use a very simple function to map point spreads to win probabilities; both algorithms exaggerate home court advantage; and the two algorithms seem to complement each other in terms of prediction. RAPTOR WAR. The mean residual was -1.51 for RAPTOR and -1.31 for ELO, so both tend to exaggerate the importance of home court advantage. Powered by FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR player ratings. The home court issue is interesting. Do they provide complementary prognostic value? Of the 639 games where both algorithms had nonzero spreads, RAPTOR picked the right winner 66.4% of the time, and ELO 67.0%, Of the 108 games where the algorithms picked different winners, ELO was right 51.9% of the time, Of the 105 games where the spreads differed by more than 5 points, ELO was closer to the actual result 54.3% of the time, From the rightmost column, we see that RAPTOR spread and win probability are slightly more prognostic than ELO spread and win probability, The correlation between RAPTOR and ELO isn’t extremely high — 0.790 for point spread, 0.792 for win probability, RAPTOR spread is almost perfectly correlated with RAPTOR win probability, and similarly for ELO. More NBA:Player projections Our 2019-20 NBA predictions. If neither is, they’re essentially worthless. The next step is to test whether either algorithm is prognostic beyond the casino’s point spread. Also, thanks to Ryan Davis, Steve Ilardi, Ben Taylor, Seth Partnow, Charles Rolph and Evan Wasch for their advice and assistance on RAPTOR. FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Miami Heat a 72% chance of winning the NBA Finals over the LA Lakers. So, we’re down to two candidate variables: the RAPTOR spread and ELO spread. Date: Nov. 2, 2019. Like BPM and RPM, RAPTOR is a plus-minus statistic that measures the number of points a player contributes to his team’s offense and defense per 100 possessions, relative to a league-average player. 2020 NFL Predictions For the regular season and playoffs, updated after every game. Jazz. Jun. Re: 538 Elo forecast gives Raptors highest chance of winning finals (31%) Post #35 » by Harcore Fenton Mun » Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:49 am Really, I hate these things. But the big question remains with the higher goal, the AFC East title. For each game, they publish a point spread and win probability based on each algorithm. The R-squared is 0.210, which is modestly higher than the single-algorithm models (0.193 and 0.182). My dataset consists of 679 NBA games played between Oct. 22, 2019, and Jan. 24, 2020. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA predictions have gone through quite an evolution over the years. mayweather_mcgregor_tweets: Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets; mlb_elo: MLB Elo; nba_all_elo: The Complete History Of The NBA; nba_carmelo: The Complete History Of The NBA 2017-18 NBA Predictions; nba_elo: NBA Elo Ratings; nba_raptor: NBA Raptor; nfl_elo: The … Plus-minus statistics have certain inherent limitations, and RAPTOR is subject to those, too. FiveThirtyEight publishes predictions for every NBA game. All rights reserved. Likewise, a player with a defensive RAPTOR of +3.4 would improve his team’s defensive performance. Let’s look at the prognostic value of each algorithm separately: The tendency for FiveThirtyEight to overweight home court advantage is clear here, as the y-intercept is negative for both algorithms. The R-squared was slightly higher for RAPTOR (0.193 vs. 0.182), suggesting RAPTOR is slightly more prognostic. eval.pyis the only runnable script, and does the following: 1. The home team only actually won 54.8% of the time. It turns out that RAPTOR and ELO picked the home team to win in 69.1% and 70.5% of games, respectively. The site's Elo forecast gives the Raptors a 56 percent chance of winning. The Best Players by WAR Not in the Baseball Hall of Fame, The Comfort of Watching Sports in the Era of Trump, David Price Changed One Pitch, and Now He’s a Postseason Star. Overall, however, RAPTOR weights the “box” component more highly than the “on-off” component. NBA Predictions (13) Personally, I find the Elo Wikipedia page interesting but not helpful to beginners, so here’s mine. We’re pretty excited about it. The residual for each game is simply the actual point spread minus the predicted point spread. 5, 2015. Namely, these statistics assume that player performance is largely linear and additive, that is, that you can roughly add up the ratings from individual players to project team performance. Contribute to fivethirtyeightdata/fivethirtyeightdata development by creating an account on GitHub. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. We’ve got two sets of predictions here, generated by perhaps the most well-known statistician in the world. Do they provide prognostic value beyond the Vegas spread? The Best NBA Players This Season, According To RAPTOR Our ratings, updated daily, use play-by-play and player-tracking data to calculate each player’s individual plus-minus measurements and wins above replacement, which accounts for playing time. Posted by. Last Time They Played. No obvious difference visually here, in my mind. CARMELO (52) To be a little more specific, note that it isn’t sufficient for FiveThirtyEight’s predicted spreads to correlate with the actual game result. Either could work, but I’m partial to the latter, as I think having all potential bets close to 50/50 is preferable. The motivation for creating this package is articulated in The fivethirtyeight R Package: “Tame Data” Principles for Introductory Statistics and Data Science Courses by Kim, Ismay, and Chunn (2018) published in Volume 11, Issue 1 of the journal “Technology Innovations in Statistics Education”. For instance, a player with an offensive RAPTOR rating of +2.1 boosts his team’s performance by 2.1 points per 100 offensive possessions while he is on the floor. That is, reduce how many points the opposing team scores; positive defensive ratings are good in RAPTOR and negative ones are bad. For each game, they publish a point spread and win probability based on each… © 2020 ABC News Internet Ventures. mayweather_mcgregor_tweets: Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets; mlb_elo: MLB Elo; nba_all_elo: The Complete History Of The NBA; nba_carmelo: The Complete History Of The NBA 2017-18 NBA Predictions; nba_elo: NBA Elo Ratings; nba_raptor: NBA Raptor; nfl_elo: The … This repo contains player advanced stats and Elo ratings for WNBA history. It would be their first AFC East crown since 1995. FiveThirtyEight’s Elo performed the best, with a Brier of 0.16 (closer to 0 is better) and so it received 9 points. Updated after every game and depth chart revision. We tested and tweaked the prediction model over the years, but it was always powered by metrics from other sources, such as Box Plus/Minus (BPM) and Real Plus-Minus (RPM). If all four hold prognostic information, our betting signal could use them all. For more detail on past RAPTORs, including the breakdown of box and on-off components, you can download files that list the regular season and playoffs separately, or a version that combines a player’s appearances over the course of the entire season5 into one file. raptor_by_player: NBA Raptor: raptor… Some evidence for independent prognostic value. Sep. 18, 2015. Here is an executive summary. But these are the highlights: The full-fledged version of RAPTOR is available for the 2013-14 season onward, as that’s when the NBA’s player-tracking data came on line. Can someone explain why 538's RAPTOR predictions (2%) and ELO predictions (20%) for us winning the finals are so different? 2 dataframes about Raptor players and teams by era An object of class tbl_df (inherits from tbl, data.frame) with 32055 rows and 24 columns.. raptor_by_player. RAPTOR ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes played4 in a season since 2013-14 can be found in the table below. Initially, every competitor is assigned an initial rating (538 NBA uses 1300). Oct. 10, 2019, Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets: mlb_elo: MLB Elo: nba_all_elo: The Complete History Of The NBA : nba_carmelo: The Complete History Of The NBA 2017-18 NBA Predictions: nba_elo: NBA Elo Ratings: nfl_elo: The Complete History Of The NFL 2017 NFL Predictions: quasi_winshares: The Twins’ Magical Run Will Likely Go Through The Yankees. @natesilver538, NBA (912 posts) Actually, two sets of predictions: “RAPTOR” and “ELO”. We’d use ‘Away Win’ if we’re ultimately interested in moneyline bets, and ‘Result’ if we’re interested in betting on the spread. Filed under Football. Reads in the CSV of historical games. Barcelona vs… Raptors: Kyle Lowry - 36 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 block. The passer gets more credit for an assisted dunk than an assisted midrange jumper, for instance. FiveThirtyEight's player-based forecasting model RAPTOR gives the Raptors a 65 percent chance of winning this game. (Because Of Course.) Format. As for our response variable, it depends on what type of bet we ultimately want to make. At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve been running NBA predictions since 2015. Finally, we can use multivariable analysis to see whether the two algorithms provide complementary prognostic information. Introducing RAPTOR, Our New Metric For The Modern NBA Our scientists … We’ll see! UPDATED Oct. 11, 2020, at 10:05 PM. They’re redundant with the point spreads, and I much prefer using the spreads, as they’re on the same scale as the response variable. Higher ratings are taken to mean better te… We also have a historical version of RAPTOR called Approximate RAPTOR dating back to 1976-1977, the first season after the ABA-NBA merger, but that uses a far more limited range of data. * Polls marked with an asterisk are partisan polls. Especially on 2-pointers; the current data for nearest defender on 3-point attempts is not very reliable or predictive. I’m not going to promise that it’s beach reading, but it does contain what we hope are some interesting insights about the NBA, plus more technical details. It highly values two-way wings such as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. User account menu. Log in sign up. Total RAPTOR. Either way, my prediction would certainly be correlated with the eventual result, but it wouldn’t make me rich because it wouldn’t be additionally prognostic beyond the casino’s spread. RAPTOR, which stands for Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings, is FiveThirtyEight’s new NBA statistic. FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. For a much deeper and more technical description, you can find our methodological explainer here. 2019-20 NBA Predictions. RAPTOR likewise values these things — not because we made any deliberate attempt to design the system that way but because the importance of those skills emerges naturally from the data. nba basketball fivethirtyeight raptor basketball-stats nba-data nba-database Updated Mar 12, 2020 simonw / fivethirtyeight-datasette Both spreads are highly significant predictors, meaning they offer complementary (non-redundant) prognostic information. correctly predicted had an edge over the Golden State Warriors, didn’t fully believe the projection ourselves at the time, What The COVID-19 Vaccine Means For The Political Battles To Come. FiveThirtyEight Raptor Playoff Forecast. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. RAPTOR ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes played, regular season and playoffs combined. WNBA-stats. More NFL:Every team’s Elo history. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. There are other player-tracking statistics we believe could be highly helpful to RAPTOR, especially more detailed measures of on-ball defense, so we hope to be able to revisit RAPTOR as additional data becomes available. Actually, two sets of predictions: “RAPTOR” and “ELO”. Introducing RAPTOR, Our New Metric For The Modern NBA. Motivation. By default, these are filled in using the exact same Elo model. Close. Player Stats. J… Why Are Some People Hesitant To Trust A COVID-19 Vaccine? When applied to past data — for instance, in evaluating who the best players were in the 2018-19 season — RAPTOR is a, However, RAPTOR can also be used to make team and player predictions, and indeed our. RAPTOR is based exclusively on publicly available data. 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